Yeah, I work in statistics too - reproductive health statistics specifically. So I know exactly what each of the Guttmacher stats say & have read every study from which they came. You can argue about "typical" vs "in the month" all day & it won't matter because the study talks about both (and I never said anything to the contrary). (It would be of great benefit to you & your wife, however, for you to develop an understanding of the difference between typical & perfect contraceptive use.)
It does matter. The source specifically states the number refers to those who have used either form (pill or condoms) in the last month, then goes on to break it down further when discussing those who used it regularly/properly, etc.
_ wrote:What I can't understand is how a man who works in statistics can say that the second stat proves that a large number of women get more than one abortion. In fact, it gives no indication whatsoever about how many women get more than one abortion.
The stat says that 47% of women having an abortion, have had a previous abortion. Clearly, that indicates that there's a good portion of the abortion community who have at least two abortions. Do you not understand that?
_ wrote:And the third statistic is not a counterfactual. (From where on earth did you even get that?) It's very easy to know how many abortions women have when they use abortion as birth control for two reasons: 1. There have been millions of women - on whom data has been collected - who actually do use abortion as birth control. But they're not American women; they're women who live in countries where contraception is prohibited. 2. Women's fertility cycles/rates are not a mystery. Knowledge of fertility & some simple math tells us how many pregnancies a typical, sexually-active, non-contracepting woman will have in a lifetime. I didn't provide sources because I've provided them a million times already around here & you already have them anyway.
Obviously you don't know what the term means:
counterfactual [ˌkauntəˈfæktʃʊəl] Logic
(Philosophy / Logic) expressing what has not happened
but could, would, or might under differing conditions
This is by definition counterfactual. You can't know precisely how many women use abortion for birth control, let alone project the number of abortions the average woman "would have" if they did use abortion as birth control. There's tons of assumptions to come up with that counterfactual statistic.
You didn't provide a source for the amount of abortions a woman would have if it were the sole means of birth control until 45 because you most likely don't have one. You most likely made it up, or someone else did. If you do have a source, fair enough, prove it.