No Need to Panic About Global Warming?

[inlet13]

For the sake of time, I'm only going to comment on this. Maybe there's a consensus here...

All climate models include parameters that aren’t known precisely, so the model projections have to include that uncertainty to be meaningful.

All climate models are imprecise because they are models. They are statistical models based on a theory. You can only hope to nail it down as close to the truth as you can get, but knowing you're there, won't ever happen. That's by definition - science. Trial and error.... Hypothesis testing.

It's possible that many of the causal models (saying there's a connection between man-made CO2 and temperature) are almost completely incorrect. They may point to significant correlation of CO2 when, in reality, it's simply due to something like an omitted variable bias. When you include that variable (that's currently not included) in a multivariate analysis the correlation may flip completely or become insignificant.

Since, I've been told to "educate" myself a number of times here (more like indoctrinate, in my opinion). I really suggest global warming supporters take four or five advanced statistical modeling classes, or just simply take 2 graduate econometrics courses. After, then we can actually talk about these models in an educated manner and get into specifics.

Until then, a lot of you are simply cutting and pasting your opinions from green blogs. That was one of the most important points in that wsj article. Those green blogs you keep citing are based, very potentially, on flawed models and are, of course, bias... and there are incentives for them to continue with the charade. No amount of your regurgitation of their information will change that.

Further, no amount of stats provided to you or to them will ever prove that AGW is at all refutable... unless you learn statistics yourself. Science always involves the scientific method, particularly when there's millions of elements/variables at play.

But, keep reading if you'd like.

[SweetChildofMine]

http://grist.org/list/rich-white-dudes- ... =gristacct


this just came down on the feed, maybe you'll get a chuckle its from Grist.

[brianlux]

Until then, a lot of you are simply cutting and pasting your opinions from green blogs.

Cutting and pasting? Like in pre-school? Did it ever occur to you that some of us actually educate ourselves on this matter?

[brianlux]

http://grist.org/list/rich-white-dudes-environmentalists-are-out-of-touch-with-the-working-class/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=gristacct


this just came down on the feed, maybe you'll get a chuckle its from Grist.

Thanks- needed that right about now. Ef-it. It's Friday, I'm off to the lounge!

[SweetChildofMine]

We can serve drinks here if you like. no need to leave the house or go to the lounge car well just start servin' it up right here in this thread!


Another interesting article was keystone opponents need job program...


I would like to state that there were an awful lot of jobs promoted in alternative energy sources (as well as human services) through americorp and jobscorp til the GOP started shitting on that... my bro got a job working on solar energy project through jobcorp

I mean they are almost like the work camps during the depression... however they are having a rough time giving them a go because ... yah know, hate to say it again and again ... same ol' ...pressure from... yah know... big oil... ugh.

[SweetChildofMine]

Until then, a lot of you are simply cutting and pasting your opinions from green blogs.

Cutting and pasting? Like in pre-school? Did it ever occur to you that some of us actually educate ourselves on this matter?

I dont see why opinions cannot agree with other peoples opinions? What is your point? I cant agree? Myriad of people cant agree? Whats wrong with collective agreement? Besides, most articles of journalism are slighted to writer's opinions joined together by strict fact and research. Whether its kitchen counter mom blogging or WSJ. Cut or paste and commenting on it doesnt mean you dont have an original thought, it may coincide with your own conclusion. I think that it was very rude of you.

[SweetChildofMine]

you got to be fucking kidding me... go take college courses then we can talk about this ....

I just read that...


I graduated magna cum laude from the University of Hard Knocks. I dont need to be a scientist to see shit is happening to the planet, Ive based my hypothesis on observation alone. I may not have written in journals, applied a scientific model to it, but however, I have an acute innate sense as a living breathing global community member birthed from the dirt and in touch with nature and my surroundings enough to say some real big shit is happening and it has to be fixed.

[CH156378]

I graduated magna cum laude from the University of Hard Knocks. I dont need to be a scientist to see shit is happening to the planet, Ive based my hypothesis on observation alone. I may not have written in journals, applied a scientific model to it, but however, I have an acute innate sense as a living breathing global community member birthed from the dirt and in touch with nature and my surroundings enough to say some real big shit is happening and it has to be fixed.

[SweetChildofMine]

I know people who have degrees who are dumber than a rock. Please.... spare me your reverse ignorance.

[brianlux]

you got to be fucking kidding me... go take college courses then we can talk about this ....

I just read that...


I graduated magna cum laude from the University of Hard Knocks. I dont need to be a scientist to see shit is happening to the planet, Ive based my hypothesis on observation alone. I may not have written in journals, applied a scientific model to it, but however, I have an acute innate sense as a living breathing global community member birthed from the dirt and in touch with nature and my surroundings enough to say some real big shit is happening and it has to be fixed.

Reminds me of something Edward Abbey wrote- I can't find the quote right now (all those damn books ) but he basically said reading and fact finding is good, getting educated is good (he taught a few college courses himself) but if you really want to learn, live... and go outside and look around, use your sense. It's all there to see.

[SweetChildofMine]

right, I went to school for .... I got out of school actually had no clue what the hell I was doing until I hands on experience doing and experiencing it. Now I do things better than what I was taught.... anyway...

------


My mom and dad always had a saying.... "Well thats all fine in theory, however..."

[inlet13]

Until then, a lot of you are simply cutting and pasting your opinions from green blogs.

Cutting and pasting? Like in pre-school? Did it ever occur to you that some of us actually educate ourselves on this matter?

Yes, cutting and pasting "thoughts"... in a way, it's worse than pre-school. Atleast in pre-school you can ask questions and it's encouraged to think outside the box. Instead, this involves no questioning (or critical-thinking) whatsoever; so in that sense, it's worse. It's an unwavering/unquestioning belief in a theory backed by liberal blogs and a set of academics who's career (and in some cases grant money) is based upon this concept. It's an unquestioning belief in statistics and models generated by one side of the argument. It's the equivalent of a person coming on here and claiming to know everything about an issue because they read a bunch of articles on Fox News and listen to Rush Limbaugh . Neither party knows how the data is produced, or the models from which they come.


To me, both sides there... are not scientific.

I've said all along the whole concept of people such as yourself claiming they are educated on the issue (and claiming anyone who disagrees is not), yet potentially have a limited grasp of statistics and modeling, is scary (especially when the other party can show they do). I'm not saying anymore than it would help to be able to conceptualize every single piece of these models and the statistical matters, so you'd really understand how believable these statistics really are.

I've said all along, I don't know the answer to man-made global warming. I just don't go around acting like I know one way or the other, I'm questioning the entire thing and will continue to do so. That's what science is built on.

[brianlux]

Until then, a lot of you are simply cutting and pasting your opinions from green blogs.

Cutting and pasting? Like in pre-school? Did it ever occur to you that some of us actually educate ourselves on this matter?

Yes, cutting and pasting "thoughts"... in a way, it's worse than pre-school. Atleast in pre-school you can ask questions and it's encouraged to think outside the box. Instead, this involves no questioning (or critical-thinking) whatsoever; so in that sense, it's worse. It's an unwavering/unquestioning belief in a theory backed by liberal blogs and a set of academics who's career (and in some cases grant money) is based upon this concept. It's an unquestioning belief in statistics and models generated by one side of the argument. It's the equivalent of a person coming on here and claiming to know everything about an issue because they read a bunch of articles on Fox News and listen to Rush Limbaugh . Neither party knows how the data is produced, or the models from which they come.


To me, both sides there... are not scientific.

I've said all along the whole concept of people such as yourself claiming they are educated on the issue (and claiming anyone who disagrees is not), yet potentially have a limited grasp of statistics and modeling, is scary (especially when the other party can show they do). I'm not saying anymore than it would help to be able to conceptualize every single piece of these models and the statistical matters, so you'd really understand how believable these statistics really are.

I've said all along, I don't know the answer to man-made global warming. I just don't go around acting like I know one way or the other, I'm questioning the entire thing and will continue to do so. That's what science is built on.

Question everything. Hell yes. Don't believe in anthropogenic global warming? That's your right too. But I never made any personal statements about anyone's intelligence on this thread and I don't appreciate the insinuation that I don't use critical thinking or have an "unwavering/unquestioning belief" on any subject. You've chosen to make this issue personal. I'm not going there. I'm done here.

[CH156378]

A poem about global warming.

Looking back on this life. There may be more wrongs than rights. But, when I tried to get away. I did not go the wrong way.

And the flames burned, burn all night. Though my way turned, turned out alright.
I still know I left you behind...
In the Fire. In the Fire.

As the pictures they burn. Memories begin to turn. Time makes wounds feel better. That's not the way they were.

And the flames burned, burn all night. Though my way turned, turned out alright.
I still know I left you behind...
In the Fire. In the Fire.
In the Fire. In the Fire.

Sometimes the only way out is through the fire.
Got to reach down to go higher.
This is your choice, it's your desire.
To stay in,... the fire.
The fire.
The fire.
The fire.
The fire

[inlet13]

A poem about global warming.

Looking back on this life. There may be more wrongs than rights. But, when I tried to get away. I did not go the wrong way.

And the flames burned, burn all night. Though my way turned, turned out alright.
I still know I left you behind...
In the Fire. In the Fire.

As the pictures they burn. Memories begin to turn. Time makes wounds feel better. That's not the way they were.

And the flames burned, burn all night. Though my way turned, turned out alright.
I still know I left you behind...
In the Fire. In the Fire.
In the Fire. In the Fire.

Sometimes the only way out is through the fire.
Got to reach down to go higher.
This is your choice, it's your desire.
To stay in,... the fire.
The fire.
The fire.
The fire.
The fire

Ha ha. You have issues, man. ha ha.